By all accounts, Canadians are not happy with us. Could it be the talk of making them the 51st state? Or perhaps the 25% tariffs? Maybe it’s both. And because of that, they might not visit us here in New Hampshire this summer. In New Hampshire, fewer visits could mean millions in lost revenue and taxes. Here to discuss what’s going on and why is writer Granite State News Collaborative reporter Jonathan Decker.
By Rosemary Ford and Caitlin Agnew
This story had been edited for length and clarity.
Melanie Plenda:
You recently wrote a story for the Granite State News Collaborative looking into how a Canadian boycott of the U.S. could affect the New Hampshire tourism industry. What inspired that?
Jonathan Decker:
I was actually just having breakfast with my fiance, and we were both just kind of talking about tariffs and the economy. She actually asked me, “I wonder if it's gonna affect visitors from Canada,” and I thought “That’s a really good idea for a story.” Then I started looking into it and then I pitched it to the Collaborative. I thought there's really something here. It turns out there was.
Melanie Plenda:
What did the Canadians you talked to say about visiting the States this year. What are they thinking? Why aren’t they coming?
Jonathan Decker:
The primary Canadian I talked to was a dual citizen, and because she travels back and forth from the U.S. and Canada all the time, I asked her about what people are saying. A lot of people are kind of boycotting travel, and even just spending in general, that is associated with the United States over the 51st state comments and the tariffs.
I think it depends on which person you're talking to, but this source told me people were much more upset with the 51st state comment than the tariffs. The 25% tariffs were baffling — that’s the word she used — because Trump did come up with and sign the trade agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico in 2017-18, and now he's kind of reneging on that.
A lot of Canadians also expressed confusion, but it really seemed to be more of a personal thing that's really what's keeping people from visiting. It’s almost like a betrayal from a friend. I think a lot of Canadians think that things soured really quickly. It’s like having a friendship with somebody and then they say, “I don’t want to see you anymore” — that type of thing.
However, it does look like it's going to be more older people who are boycotting and younger people who still might come down, especially for hiking, outdoor recreation — that type of thing.
Melanie Plenda:
There are even marketing campaigns in Canada advising citizens not to visit the States and buy Canadian goods. What’s going on there?
Jonathan Decker:
Yes, so that seems to be happening in various different businesses. It seems to be pretty grassroots. I first heard about this, actually, from my editor, Jeff Feingold, when he was traveling in Canada, when I was working on this piece. He actually wrote to me and said, “Hey, there's actually all these signs in the grocery store that say, ‘Buy Canadian,’ that products are labeled so you know if you're going to buy the U.S. product or the Canadian product, to encourage local consumption and production.”
Another one of my sources was Charlie St Clair. He's a state representative, but he's also the man behind Bike Week, and every year he goes on a big odyssey across the country to promote Bike Week in Laconia, sending out mailers and magazines. And he told me that when he was driving, he was listening to an AM radio station in Canada, and he heard an ad telling people to stay home, don't travel to the United States this summer, and spend your money in Canada. So it just seems to be a grassroots and populist movement to counter President Trump's rhetoric.
Melanie Plenda:
What will that mean for New Hampshire’s economy? What sort of an impact will that have?
Jonathan Decker:
It's a little difficult to get exact numbers, because even the Division of Tourism here doesn't track specifically how many Canadians are coming in. Many of them come through Vermont. But we do know that the state raises a significant amount of tax revenue from the rooms and meals tax — I think in 2023, $450 million was raised. So if you just saw a 5% dip, that could be $22 million of lost revenue from Canadians not spending on those hotel rooms and those meals and restaurants. But again, we can't really know the exact big number of the year until it happens.
Melanie Plenda:
What about the local tourism industry? Do they see a way to adapt to this change?
Jonathan Decker:
I think it depends on what region you're in. One of my sources mentioned that they might be able to adapt due to lower gas prices. So we might just get more American visitors willing to travel and drive into New Hampshire. That was probably the biggest adaptation I saw. But as far as replacing Canadians specifically, I didn't hear anything about that. But again, you might be able to make up for this with domestic travel.
Melanie Plenda:
What about repairing our relationship with Canada? What will it take?
Jonathan Decker:
I think that's going to vary from individual to individual, but one theme that I noticed was that there seems to be just more blame at the higher levels. As far as Canadian and American citizen interaction goes, there doesn't seem to be that much bad blood. But when it comes to the top of the pile, the political class, I honestly think a change in American leadership would be a strong first step to that.
One of my sources thinks it could take a generation to get over this. It depends from person to person, but a lot of Canadians do feel very hurt by this sudden turn on them as a trading partner and as an ally, especially with the rhetoric surrounding being the 51st state.
I'm not sure what Trump is trying to achieve with that rhetoric. I don't know if the United States would actually like to manage Canada and add an additional 35 million citizens. His motivations surrounding the trade war are a bit difficult to splice as well, because if it's not a dissatisfaction with the initial trade deal — he said it's been to pressure them to do more about fentanyl trafficking. But according to the DEA, Canada is not a major supplier of fentanyl to the United States, it is Mexico, China and India. Canada already has its own huge fentanyl problem as well. They're much more of a consumer than an exporter of the drug and the components needed to make it.
So I'm not sure what his strategy is in that sense. I understand pressuring Mexico — that makes a lot more sense to pressure Mexico and China, because that's where it's coming from, but we will see.
Melanie Plenda:
That was interesting. Granite State News Collaborative reporter Jonathan Decker — thank you so much for joining us today.
“The State We’re In” is a weekly digital public affairs show produced by NH PBS and The Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication at Franklin Pierce University. It is shared with partners in the Granite State News Collaborative, of which both organizations are members. For more information, visit collaborativenh.org.